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  • Writer's picturePatrick Aloisio

Coinbase Chief Product Officer: 10 Predictions for Web3 and the Cryptoeconomy for 2022

Coinbase 2022 predictions Web3 Cryptoeconomy

Big list of 10, but let’s look at a few.

What I agree with: Eth scalability will improve, but newer Layer1 chains will see substantial growth. Face it. It’s a Multichain world. Eth2 is coming out with solid improvements, but look for newer competing Layer1s increasing their market share like SOL & Avalanche. How each new layer prioritizes speed over security over centralization will determine their market shares.

What I’m iffy about: NFT Based Communities will give serious competition to Web 2 social networks. There's an estimated 4.4 billion people that use social media currently. OpenSea, which is the top NFT marketplace, has 250k active monthly users. NFT Communities would need a historic level of growth in 1 year for this to come true... Bascially I guess it falls on what is your definition of "serious competition to Web 2." I would make the argument it's a serious competitor now. But I took this prediction as if NFT Communities would be stealing significant market share, which I think still takes more time than a year.

What I disagree with: Time for DAO 2.0 — We’ll see DAOs become more mature and mainstream. More people will join DAOs, prompting a change in definition of employment

(Decentralized Autonomous Organizations). DAOs are a pipedream when it comes to replacing companies. Much too messy to successfully operate, & impractical. Rare Constitution-like DAOs, maybe (Link to more on that here). Everyday companies, no way.

The main benefit of a DAO is the decentralized aspect, meaning you are trying to defend against a centralized authority abusing their powers. However, in theory if you have an inherently good and very capable centralized authority (aka CEO), you would always want that over a random group of people trying to making group decisions. Groups are slow, they argue, the members aren't all the same levels of competent so their votes shouldn't be equal between them.

Successful DAOs that act as companies will be few and far between. The bigger the DAO, the more complicated it gets.

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